Valuation
What the business is worth on its future cash flows, set against today's share price. Built from SEC EDGAR filings and end-of-day prices.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Share price $213.66 · close of 2026-10-291.1 Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value
What is the fair price of NVDA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
NVDA trades 83.0% above its estimated cash flow value of $116.73.
1.2 Key Valuation Multiples
Trailing twelve months where quarterly figures exist, otherwise the latest fiscal year.
1.3 How the Cash Flow Value Is Calculated
Ten years of projected free cash flow are discounted back to today, plus a terminal value for everything after year ten. Growth starts at the company's recent revenue growth and fades in a straight line to the terminal rate.
Assumptions
| Free cash flow | $127.0B | Trailing 12 months to 2026-07-31: operating cash flow less capital expenditure |
|---|---|---|
| Normalized base | $135.0B | Revenue $303.0B × 44.6% median free cash flow margin (last 4 periods) |
| Starting growth | 25.0% | Revenue CAGR FY2023–FY2026: 100.0%, held to 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | Long-run growth after year 10, near long-term inflation plus real growth |
| Risk-free rate | 4.3% | US 10-year Treasury yield |
| Equity risk premium | 5.5% | Extra return investors expect from stocks over Treasuries |
| Beta | 1.70 | 5-year weekly regression vs SPY: 2.06, adjusted toward 1 (⅔ × raw + ⅓) |
| Discount rate | 13.7% | Cost of equity = risk-free rate + beta × equity risk premium |
| Diluted shares | 24.29B | Weighted average, latest reported period |
From cash flows to a value per share
| Present value of years 1–10 | $1.61T |
|---|---|
| Terminal value (year 10) | $4.40T |
| Present value of terminal value (43.1% of total) | $1.22T |
| Equity value | $2.83T |
| ÷ Diluted shares | 24.29B |
| Cash flow value per share | $116.73 |
Projected free cash flow
| Year | Growth | Free cash flow | Discount factor | Present value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · Normalized, trailing 12 months to 2026-07-31 | – | $135.0B | – | – |
| 2027 | 25.0% | $168.8B | 0.880 | $148.5B |
| 2028 | 22.5% | $206.7B | 0.774 | $160.0B |
| 2029 | 20.0% | $248.1B | 0.681 | $168.9B |
| 2030 | 17.5% | $291.5B | 0.599 | $174.6B |
| 2031 | 15.0% | $335.2B | 0.527 | $176.6B |
| 2032 | 12.5% | $377.1B | 0.463 | $174.8B |
| 2033 | 10.0% | $414.8B | 0.408 | $169.1B |
| 2034 | 7.5% | $445.9B | 0.359 | $159.9B |
| 2035 | 5.0% | $468.2B | 0.315 | $147.7B |
| 2036 | 2.5% | $479.9B | 0.278 | $133.2B |
1.4 Free Cash Flow History
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Operating cash flow | Capital expenditure | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | $27.0B | $5.6B | -$1.8B | $3.8B |
| FY2024 | $60.9B | $28.1B | -$1.1B | $27.0B |
| FY2025 | $130.5B | $64.1B | -$3.2B | $60.9B |
| FY2026 | $215.9B | $102.7B | -$6.0B | $96.7B |
Financial figures to 2026-07-31 from SEC filings; price as of 2026-10-29. A model estimate from reported figures and fixed assumptions, not a forecast or investment advice. Full statements are on the Financials page.